NFL Week 6 Pick: Browns Deal Cards First Loss; Rams cover a large number among giants


The NFL is the Usain Bolt of pro sports: Blink and you might miss it. Every year the season goes by so quickly. Week 6 brings with it the first list of byes (Jets, Falcons, 49ers, Saints), which is good as it gives us two fewer chances to go wrong.

The Underdogs went 6-9-1 ATS last week, their first losing campaign of the season. They are still 42-36-2 in total.

My most confident picks this ATS week are Seattle, Kansas City, and the LA Rams. A sneaky outsider choice as a bonus: Detroit. Stay away from Las Vegas-Denver.


ARIZONA (5-0) AT CLEVELAND (3-2), 4:05 p.m.

Cleveland by 3; O / U: 49.5

Quick, how many NFL teams have never won a Super Bowl? . . . (wait) . . . (wait) . . . (did you already understand that?). OK, the answer is 12, and those are two of them. Both look like they’re in the playoffs, so maybe the super game is in the cards. As for Sunday, I’m leaving with the home team. I dare say it: I think the Browns are the most complete team. Yes, Arizona is the only 5-0 team in the NFL and has looked dominant in two of its wins, but the other three give me pause (it was hanging out at halftime against Jacksonville without a win). Baker Mayfield suffers from a shoulder injury, but he performed well in a savage 47-42 loss to the Chargers. He’ll be up for this game against Kyler Murray, another former Oklahoma / No star. 1 overall choice. Cleveland’s defense didn’t perform well last week but in three wins before that allowed a total of 34 points. The fact that he has given up nearly 50 makes me think they will respond at home. The Browns face a few injuries, but I still think they find a way to win a close one.

The choice : Cleveland



TV: CBS, 9:30 a.m.

Miami by 3; O / U: 47

Sometimes you talk to each other about things (see: my choice of Jaguars last week). But even the always optimistic Ted Lasso can’t make me believe it’s a game worth watching. Jacksonville has been most successful in London, but it’s a new diet, a messy diet and the franchise has lost 20 games in a row. At this point, opponents won’t want to be the ones to help them end this streak.

The choice : Miami

1 p.m. Games

LA RAMS (4-1) AT GIANTS (1-4)

TV: Fox

LA by 9.5; O / U: 48.5

The Rams go into extra rest. The Giants wish they had it. That’s a huge number for a road team, but considering all of the Giants’ injuries, how are they going to rack up enough points to cover? Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and the Rams have a field day against an upgraded Giants secondary. With the Rams (22-11 straight down the road under Sean McVay) watching the Cardinals in the standings, expect them to treat this like a business trip.

The choice : LA Rams


Kansas City by 6.5; O / U: 55.5

It’s the same scenario as Week 4, when Kansas City played Philadelphia after a home loss that dropped it to 1-2. Now it’s another NFC East team after a humiliating home loss to SNF that once again knocked the KC below 0.500. Patrick Mahomes threw 5 touchdown passes in this 42-30 win over the Eagles and he will play again. Washington has allowed 29, 43, 30 and 33 points in the past four weeks. In another ‘get good’ game for KC, expect Mahomes & Co. to get straight to the point early.

The choice : Kansas City



Baltimore by 2.5; H / S: 52

Both teams are 4-1, but the Chargers (also 4-1 ATS) have been much more impressive. Baltimore could easily be 2-3 if not for a furious comeback against the Colts on MNF and two weeks before that, an NFL record, 66-yard last-second field goal in Detroit. The Chargers won in Kansas City, just held off Cleveland in a 47-42 thriller, and their only loss was a three-point loss to Dallas. Justin Herbert plays the lights. New coach Brandon Staley’s aggressive approach is also paying off: Last week LA placed fourth three times, converting all three and now 7 for 7. Those kind of courageous calls can make a difference in games. tight, which it probably will.

The choice : LA Chargers


Green Bay by 5; O / U: 44.5

The Packers are one of four teams to have won four in a row after losing their first game (the Cowboys, Bills and Ravens are the others). The Bears have won back-to-back wins, but that was against the winless Lions and a controversial Raiders team. Green Bay has injury issues, but he still has this guy named Aaron Rodgers. He’s an all-time 20-5 record against the Bears, with 55 TDs at 10 INT.

The choice : Green Bay


Minnesota by 1; O / U: 46

This is the game of the week, but I’m going to side with Carolina as they look to avoid a three-game slippage and back-to-back home losses. The Panthers could get Christian McCaffrey back.

The choice : Caroline


Cincinnati by 3.5; O / U: 47.5

This is the Bengals’ fourth game against NFC North. The three previous contests: Victory by 3 in OT (Vikings), defeat by 3 (Bears) and defeat by 3 in OT (Packers). Another field goal is likely against a Lions team that is 2-3 ATS and continues to fight to the end (19-17 losses to Baltimore and Minnesota on field goals at the last second).

The choice : Detroit


Indianapolis by 10; O / U: 43.5

It is rare to have such a large gap between teams with a victory. The Colts can win in double digits, but they could also be a bit demoralized after losing a 22-3 lead to Baltimore six nights earlier.

The choice : Houston

4 p.m. Games



Dallas of 3.5; O / U: 50.5

The Cowboys have won four in a row after a two-point loss in Game 1 at Tampa Bay. They are 5-0 ATS. Dak Prescott, a dominant rush attack and hawking defense seem unstoppable. There’s no reason to think they’ll be slowed down by a Pats team that’s 0-3 at home, which is exactly why I’m a little nervous that it’s closer than it looks on the paper. I go with a warm hand but be careful before going all-in on the obvious play.

The choice : Dallas

LAS VEGAS (3-2) A DENVER (3-2)

Denver by 3.5; O / U: 44.5

Both stumbled after 3-0 starts. It comes back to the Raiders’ mindset after Jon Gruden resigned: Will it be a distraction, or will they be motivated to change the narrative? The tiebreaker gets the extra half point in what feels like a close division battle.

The choice : Las Vegas




TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

Pittsburgh by 5; O / U: 42.5

The lookout line on this game was Seattle -2.5. Then Russell Wilson was injured in the loss to the Seahawks’ TNF, the Steelers won on Sunday and now he’s swinging over seven points. It is simply too much of a line change. First, Geno Smith rallied Seattle in relief from Wilson before a late INT the receiver fell on. Seattle having more time to prepare is huge. Most of the time, however, the confidence in that pick is that the Steelers’ offense hasn’t shown enough to be favored by so many, even at home against a backup QB. A win over the Broncos and all is well in Pittsburgh? Don’t buy it. It’s going to be close, so take advantage of the value with the underdog.

The choice : Seattle



TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.

Buffalo 5.5; H / S: 54

The Bills made a statement with a 38-20 victory at KC over SNF. The disappointment factor would be at play here if they played against a bad team at 1pm, but that’s MNF and another division boss. Buffalo won’t take the night. Remember, the Titans lost to the Jets.

The choice : Buffalo


(best bets in bold)


39-39-2 in total, 3-2 best bets

Last week: 7-8-1

Philadelphia Miami LA Rams Kansas City LA Chargers

Green Bay Caroline Detroit Houston Cleveland

Dallas Las Vegas Seattle Buffalo


40-38-2, 2-3

Last week: 8-7-1

Tampa Bay Miami LA Rams Kansas City LA Chargers

Green Bay Caroline Detroit Indianapolis Cleveland

New England Denver Pittsburgh Tennessee


44-34-2, 2-2-1

Last week: 7-8-1

Philadelphia Jacksonville LA Rams Kansas City LA Chargers

Green Bay Caroline Cincinnati Indianapolis Arizona

Dallas Denver Seattle Buffalo


33-45-2, 2-2-1

Last week: 7-8-1

Tampa Bay Miami LA Rams Kansas City LA Chargers

Green Bay Minnesota Cincinnati Houston Cleveland

Dallas Las Vegas Seattle Buffalo


Leave A Reply